Forecasted Returns

Each year VFDA posts its projected annual return for the Solomon Gulch Hatchery. Pink salmon returns are forecasted by estimating the percentage of the fry released that will come back as adults. This percentage is known as the “Marine Survival.”

Pink salmon returns are estimated using the past ten even or odd year returns, to derive an average marine survival for the coming year. This average marine survival forecasts the midpoint estimate of the return, and a number of fish is then calculated to show a 50% increase or decrease from this estimate to determine a high or low range.

Coho salmon are estimated by simply calculating the past 10-year average marine survival.

2022 Pink Salmon Forecast (Numbers of Fish)

Low
Mid
High
6,751,813
13,503,625
20,255,438

 

2022 Coho Salmon Forecast (Numbers of Fish)

Solomon Gulch Hatchery
Tatitlek
74,642
944