Forecasted Returns

Each year VFDA posts its projected annual return for the Solomon Gulch Hatchery. Pink salmon returns are forecasted by estimating the percentage of the fry released that will come back as adults. This percentage is known as the “Marine Survival.”

Pink salmon returns are estimated using the past four even or odd year returns, to derive an average marine survival for the coming year. This average marine survival sets the midpoint of the return, and a number of fish is then calculated to show a 50% increase or decrease from this estimate.

Coho salmon are estimated by simply calculating the past 5 year average marine survival.

2018 Pink Salmon Forecast (Numbers of Fish)

Low
Mid
High
8,466,072
16,932,144
25,398,216

 

2018 Coho Salmon Forecast (Numbers of Fish)

Solomon Gulch Hatchery
Tatitlek
85,111
873